India’s exports to China have shot up in recent months, mostly thanks to marine products and electronics, as bilateral ties thaw and New Delhi’s diversification strategy to offset the impact of steep US tariffs takes effect.

Nevertheless, experts see China’s ballooning trade surplus with India as a matter of concern.

In the first nine months of the current fiscal year, which began last April, India’s merchandise exports to China rose 36.7% from the same period a year earlier to USD 14.25 billion, according to data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry. In December alone, these shipments increased 68% to USD 2.05 billion.

“[It] is a welcome growth,” commerce secretary Rajesh Agrawal told reporters earlier this month, adding that the “overall recalibration of supply chains across the world is helping” the South Asian nation boost its exports to the communist giant.

The jump in exports to China comes with US-Indian ties fraying. President Donald Trump in August imposed steep 50% tariffs on Indian goods, including a 25% penalty for India’s purchases of Russian oil. India has a significant merchandise trade surplus with the US, by far its largest export destination.

As for the marine products India is shipping to China, it sent USD 1.056 billion worth in the April-November period, 20.4% more than in the same period a year earlier, according to ministry data.

A separate December 2025 report by the New Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative said the surge in India’s exports to China is driven by a narrow set of products. GTRI said naphtha is the biggest contributor, with exports in the April-October period up 172% from a year earlier to USD 1.4 billion, reflecting strong Chinese demand for petrochemical feedstocks.

Electronics also showed “unusually sharp spikes” with printed circuit board exports jumping over 2,000% to USD 418 million in the first seven months of the ongoing financial year, the report said. Mobile phone component exports rose 82% to USD 362 million, “an unusual trend given India’s large imports of these items from China,” it said.

As India seeks to diversify its export markets, it has stepped up efforts to strike trade deals with several countries in a bid to minimize the impact of the US tariffs. Last month, it concluded what it called a “free trade agreement” with New Zealand, close on the heels of signing a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Oman during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s December visit to the Gulf nation and months after inking a trade deal with the UK.

In addition, India and the European Union are reportedly close to sealing a major trade pact, and New Delhi and Washington continue to negotiate a deal of their own.

S C Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said the country’s top export destinations demonstrate “a well-diversified and resilient” export footprint.

“This diversification is particularly critical at a time when global trade routes are being reshaped due to geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, shipping disruptions and strategic realignments,” he said in a recent statement issued by FIEO.

Regarding the rise of exports to China, Namrata Hasija, a research fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, said they are “not broad-based” and are heavily driven by specific commodities, an indication that the growth is “more reactive to immediate Chinese demand rather than a long-term, structural realignment.”

“The issue is also that China is OK with buying these items from India now,” she told Nikkei Asia. But “what if the state policy changes and they too tighten the screws” on shipments from India?

N R Bhanumurthy, director of the Madras School of Economics in Chennai, said that right now exports to China “may be a little more competitive” for Indian industry because of the Trump tariffs. Another reason for the surge in exports could be that “maybe China is looking at the Indian market for [procuring] some of the things they want to withdraw from … especially the production of low-value products,” he told Nikkei.

However, Bhanumurthy added that India “running an increasingly wider trade deficit with China is definitely a [matter of] concern” and added that it needs to enhance its business relationship with the neighboring country in a way that addresses the trade gap.

In the April-December period, China’s exports to India were worth USD 95.95 billion, up from USD 84.57 billion a year earlier. India’s key imports from China include electronics, machinery, chemicals, and plastics.

Over the same period, India’s trade deficit with China widened to USD 81.7 billion from USD 74.15 billion a year earlier.

“India’s recent export gains to China are narrow, volatile and heavily dependent on shifts in Chinese demand, rather than on durable market access or a diversified export base,” Ajay Srivastava, GTRI’s founder, said in the report. “Without a sustained strategy to expand competitive manufacturing, reduce import dependence in key sectors, and strengthen trade monitoring, short-term export spikes will do little to alter the fundamentally imbalanced nature of India-China trade.”

This article first appeared on Nikkei Asia. It has been republished here as part of 36Kr’s ongoing partnership with Nikkei.