Chinese authorities are pushing humanoid robots as the next big thing after electric vehicles. This gives them a common cause with Tesla boss and Donald Trump confidant Elon Musk, with observers foreseeing a potential repeat of the way his company helped catalyze China’s EV industry.

Earlier this month, Shenzhen’s government issued an action plan to offer funding and policy support for intelligent robots including humanoids. The southeastern city said it hopes to catalyze breakthroughs in core components, artificial intelligence chips, biomimetic dexterous hands, and other technologies. By 2027, it aims to host more than ten companies valued at over RMB 10 billion (USD 1.4 billion) and over 20 companies with annual revenues exceeding RMB 1 billion (USD 140 million).

This was just the latest in a string of policy moves to promote robotics and humanoids since 2023. Shanghai aims to cultivate a RMB 1 trillion (USD 140 billion) industry by the end of 2025, while Beijing has announced plans to establish a RMB 10 billion robotics fund and create a humanoid innovation center. Provinces such as Zhejiang, Shandong, Chongqing, and Anhui have all rolled out targeted robotics action plans.

Musk’s Tesla, a foundational player in a Chinese EV ecosystem that has grown into a global competitor, is honing its own humanoid technology.

As Tesla’s profits plunged in 2024 due to a fierce EV price war in China and slowing demand in Europe, Musk has increasingly emphasized the company’s Optimus robot. At Tesla’s fourth quarter earnings call, he expressed confidence in the company’s ability to produce thousands of humanoids by the end of this year. He said the bots would perform “the most boring and annoying tasks” in Tesla factories first, before deliveries to external clients begin in the second half of 2026.

Unlike typical industrial robots, like the disembodied arms that assemble components, humanoids are designed to mimic humans. Their capabilities remain limited and experts say that putting them in factories is tantamount to an internship. Ultimately, advances in both AI and hardware engineering are expected to lead to their broader integration into the workplace and the home.

After Musk introduced an Optimus prototype in 2022, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued industrial development guidance the following year, saying the country would strive to mass produce humanoid robots by 2025 and seek to build a globally competitive industrial ecosystem. “Humanoid robots integrate artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and new materials, and have the potential to become the next disruptive technology after computers, smartphones, and electric vehicles,” said the authority at the time.

Multiple Chinese companies already announced last year that they had started to deliver humanoid robots to EV makers.

Paul Gong, head of China autos research at UBS Investment Bank, described Musk as a sort of “spiritual leader” for the humanoid industry, a role he also played in EVs. Tesla’s self driving technology, he said, “pushed Chinese automakers to continuously pursue smarter vehicles and autonomous driving, and the introduction of the humanoid robot concept has also led numerous Chinese companies to explore this direction.”

Gong said that “Musk’s relationship with China is an ongoing transformation,” and that “his humanoid robots will also rely on China’s extensive supply chain for various components.”

Joseph Li, head of capital formation and portfolio development at asset manager C Capital, made a similar point. “Musk’s Optimus could accelerate global adoption of humanoid robots, validating the sector and pushing Chinese firms to innovate,” he said. “It may also spur partnerships with Tesla’s China-based suppliers and pressure local players to further reduce costs.”

A recent Morgan Stanley report found that globally, a majority of companies engaged in humanoid robotics are based in Asia, with China leading the sector. Among the 100 publicly traded companies involved in the field, 56% are based in China. 45% of the integrator companies, which customize robots to fit the needs of end users, are from China.

Among them, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, which supplies thermal management technology to Tesla, is expected to provide key components to Optimus, while Tesla supplier Ningbo Tuopu Group is expected to be a major contributor to the humanoid as well.

Backed by government efforts to stoke the robotics industry, China is also home to emerging leaders like UBTech, Fourier Intelligence, and Unitree Robotics. Unitree’s founder, Wang Xingxing, was close at hand when Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted some of the country’s best-known entrepreneurs last month, promising support for the private sector.

Major tech companies including Huawei, DJI, Xiaomi, and Xpeng have all entered the humanoid robotics race, too.

China’s supply chain is 80–90% self-sufficient for midtier components like motors and reducers, according to C Capital’s Li. But he said it remains reliant on foreign suppliers for key components, such as high-performance AI chips and precision actuators, though efforts to localize production are rapidly advancing.

The dynamics in many ways appear similar to what has happened in the EV market, where Tesla paved the way and Chinese players used it to rapidly expand and ultimately challenge the American trailblazer.

In the short term, Chinese manufacturers may not come into direct competition with Optimus, as the market is still in its early growth phase, said Lu Hanchen, director of Shenzhen Gaogong Industry Research. But as technology matures and production scales up, competition could intensify, particularly as Tesla may leverage China’s supply chain to significantly reduce costs, paralleling the intense competition in the EV sector.

One uncertain factor in the interplay between Tesla and the Chinese industry is the new era in US politics, including Musk’s own closeness to President Donald Trump.

Trump has put Musk in charge of improving government efficiency and slashing spending. Musk’s use of his social media platform X to trumpet the Republican agenda, his bond with Trump and his apparent sway over the administration prompted Massachusetts governor Maura Healey, a Democrat, to call him the “co-president” of the US.

While the White House has repeatedly hit China with new trade tariffs, prompting retaliation, some US lawmakers have expressed concern that China could use Musk’s business interests to influence Trump’s policies.

The Chinese “absolutely see him as an asset to them in any kind of negotiations, a way to bypass [secretary of state Marco] Rubio, a way to bypass [national security adviser Mike] Waltz, a way to bypass those whom they see to be less friendly to them on their issues,” said Democratic representative Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois at a recent Brookings event. John Moolenaar, a Republican who co-chairs the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party with Krishnamoorthi, expressed similar reservations.

Conversely, Gaogong’s Lu warned that intensifying geopolitical tensions between the superpowers could lead to new restrictions on robotics cooperation, even including “export of high-end Optimus robots to China.”

“Additionally, humanoid robots handle large amounts of data, which could lead to a potential ban on Chinese humanoid robots entering the US market, too,” Lu said.

“It is a very complicated issue, which involves US domestic politics, US-China tensions, and business competition,” Lu conceded. He added that if the US were to further curb China’s access to high-end technologies, Chinese companies might be forced to accelerate innovation and narrow the gap with global leaders, just like China’s breakthroughs in AI chips and large language models, like those produced by DeepSeek.

This article first appeared on Nikkei Asia. It has been republished here as part of 36Kr’s ongoing partnership with Nikkei.